27 Feb 2004: Student teaching is killing me. I've had two drop-outs since the last update, and enough time is past that I'm not even going to put dates or links on those. This is becoming an exercise in how wrong I can be in my predictions. This is almost as bad as that article a friend wrote predicting that the Berlin Wall wouldn't come tumbling down anytime soon, which appeared in print, the day after the Berlin Wall was, in fact, torn down.

Incidentally, with Howard Dean's drop-out, I've officially crossed the line into statistical insignificance.

5 Feb 2004: I've been a bit busy this week, so I didn't get to update this page with the Lieberman drop-out. Things are still looking bad for Dean and all signs are that if Wisconsin doesn't go for Dean, then Dean will pack it in. Dean managed to put together a devoted base, but never really expanded his following beyond his base. It's a pity because he demonstrated that he would have been a good leader for the democratic party, with some of the ways that he motivated his supporters to back some candidates further down the ticket. I hope that he does pack the eventual nominee.

27 Jan 2004: It's starting to look my predictions might be as wrong as can be. Lieberman is likely to be next to drop, and I'd expect to see Clark not too far behind him. At this point, my prognostication (not that they've been any good thusfar) will have Kerry, Edwards and Dean taking it all the way. Dean's second place finish in NH is not a good sign for him, but we'll see what happens with his greater financial backing as the primary expands in the larger arena. Kucinich and Sharpton are more likely to stay in because they're more vanity candidates anyway and they have no reason to drop out as long as they keep getting invitations to the debates.

19 Jan 2004: Wow, Iowa has shown that the conventional wisdom can be way off. Everyone had expected this to be a race between Dean and Gephardt. Instead they came in 3rd and 4th! My expectation is that this won't dramatically impact Dean, but Gephardt, who I had effectively picked as a second place finish after Dean is probably out.

14 Jan 2004: Well my hopes of a perfect score have been dashed with Carol Moseley-Braun dropping out sooner than expected.

16 Nov 2003: Who's laughing now? When I first posted this, there was a great deal of scorn on my picking Kerry as second to drop out of the race, but as the news has developed with Kerry's campaign beginning to appear desparate and in disarray, my prediction looks quite good indeed.